Sunday, 24 August 2008

Dollar Valuations Still Hinge On Other Regions Being Worse

Read More Here: "Dollar Index: From Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole, it is apparent the Fed is making a simple bet; a slowing U.S. and global economy will crimp demand, and that will help moderate inflation. There is nothing radical at all in this assumption. In fact, the chairman is using the most basic of economic laws so shape policy. The trick here is to get things right, which in this case means making an accurate projection regarding the future path of economic growth. We would have to assume that Q3 GDP, and likely Q4 GDP as well, will be less than what was seen in the first two quarters although it is too early to say whether outright contraction will occur. We can also surmise from his speech that the job market will slow, as the Fed is partially dependent on a slackening in what it calls 'resource utilization' to help reduce inflation."

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