Read More Here: "My bullish call behind the dollar has been based on many factors. One factor, however, that I did not take into account is the action in the British Pound.
Sure, I track the overnight rates of the UK economy and where fair value of that target should reside but generally speaking, I have kept my comments to the Euro. But as I reviewed my notes yesterday and the charts of the currencies, I noticed something that was quite interesting. First, things technically are breaking down for the Pound. Second, the UK economy is suffering much more than the US economy at this juncture. In between, the Monetary Policy Committee [MPC] of the Bank of England is stuck as rising inflation and falling growth are accelerating from a spread perspective - the proverbial rock and a hard place.
Trading in the Pound has been mediocre, relative to the Euro, over the past year. The Sterling peaked in the fall of 2007 around 2.10 and has not looked back falling into the 1.90 range today, thanks in large part to a RPI rating that was much higher than most expected (more on that later)."
Friday, 15 August 2008
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